Response to Tyler Cowen’s Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history
28 March 2023 · Zvi Mowshowitz (lesswrong.com)
Predictions are hard, especially about the future. On this we can all agree. …
Response to Tyler Cowen on AI risk
6 April 2023 · @leopoldasch (forourposterity.com)
AGI will effectively be the most powerful weapon man has ever created. Neither “lockdown forever” nor “let ’er rip” is a productive response; we can chart a smarter path.
MR Tries The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy
4 April 2023 · Astral Codex Ten
The Safe Uncertainty Fallacy goes: The situation is completely uncertain. We can’t predict anything about it. We have literally no idea how it could go. Therefore, it’ll be fine. You’re not missing anything. It’s not supposed to make sense; that’s why it’s a fallacy. For years, people used the Safe Uncertainty Fallacy on AI timelines: Since 2017, AI has moved faster than most people expected; GPT-4 sort of qualifies as an AGI , the kind of AI most people were saying was decades away. When you have ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA when something will happen, sometimes the answer turns out to be “soon”.