Tyler Cowen on the Risks and Impact of Artificial Intelligence
15 May 2023 · EconTalk
Economist Tyler Cowen of George Mason University talks with EconTalk’s Russ Roberts about the benefits and dangers of artificial intelligence. Cowen argues that the worriers--those who think that artificial intelligence will destroy mankind--need to make a more convincing case for their concerns. He also believes that the worriers are too willing to reduce freedom and empower the state in the name of reducing a risk that is far from certain. Along the way, Cowen and Roberts discuss how AI might change various parts of the economy and the job market.
Existential risk, AI, and the inevitable turn in human history
27 March 2023 · Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution.com)
In several of my books and many of my talks, I take great care to spell out just how special recent times have been, for most Americans at least. For my entire life, and a bit more, there have been two essential features of the basic landscape: 1. American hegemony over much of the world, […]
The Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and existential AGI risk
7 April 2023 · Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution.com)
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, activated in 1970, has been relatively successful in limiting nuclear proliferation. When it comes to nuclear weapons, it is hard to find good news, but the treaty has acted as one deterrent of many to nation-states acquiring nuclear arms. Of course the treaty works, in large part, because the United States […]
Does natural selection favor AIs over humans? Model this!
4 April 2023 · Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution.com)
Dan Hendrycks argues it probably favors the AIs, paper here. He is a serious person, well known in the area, home page here, and he gives a probability of doom above 80%. I genuinely do not understand why he sees so much force in his own paper. I am hardly “Mr. Journal of Economic Theory,” […]
This GPT-4 answer speaks for itself
11 April 2023 · Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution.com)
TC: Which is the leading attempt to publish a canonical paper on AGI risk, in a leading science journal, refereed of course. The paper should have a formal model or calibration of some sort, working toward the conclusion of showing that the relevant risk is actually fairly high. Is there any such thing? Please answer […]
EA, AI, and the rationality community
9 April 2023 · Tyler Cowen (marginalrevolution.com)
More broadly, I think AI Alignment ideas/the EA community/the rationality community played a pretty substantial role in the founding of the three leading AGI labs (Deepmind, OpenAI, Anthropic), and man, I sure would feel better about a world where none of these would exist, though I also feel quite uncertain here. But it does sure feel […]