GPT-4 surprised many people with its abilities at coding, creative brainstorming, letter-writing, and other skills. Surprises in machine learning are…

Last August, my research group created a forecasting contest to predict AI progress on four benchmarks. Forecasts were asked to predict state-of-the-…

Thanks to Collin Burns, Ruiqi Zhong, Cassidy Laidlaw, Jean-Stanislas Denain, and Erik Jones, who generated most of the considerations discussed in th…